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2025 NYC Mayoral Poll Cuomo Holds His Lead One Week Before Primary Day, as Voters Express Unease with City's Direction [View all]
Between June 10th and June 16th, 2025, the Manhattan Institute conducted a survey of 1,000 likely voters in New York City’s upcoming mayoral election, including an oversample of 644 Democratic primary voters to provide granular insights into primary dynamics. The sample was drawn from a national voter file and weighted to reflect the likely 2025 electorate on age, gender, race, county, education, party registration, and 2024 presidential vote. Responses were collected using a mixed-mode approach: online (400), SMS-to-web (420), live calls to cell phones (153), and landlines (27). The margin of error is ±3.1% for the likely voters sample and ±3.9% for the primary voters sample.
Despite the Big Apple’s progressive image, the mayoral electorate takes a markedly more skeptical view on crime, homelessness, and immigration than national narratives suggest. Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani has energized a vocal progressive flank, but their views on policing and public order are far afield from those of most New Yorkers. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo, by contrast, leads the Democratic primary and commands the broadest general election coalition—not because voters are nostalgic, but because they’re uneasy. The picture that emerges is not of a city in revolt, but of one seeking a course correction.
Tuesday’s Democratic Primary
Our ranked-choice simulation (Figure 1) shows Cuomo defeating Mamdani 56% to 44% in the final round. The former governor opens with a 13-point lead in the first round (43% to 30%), with the remaining vote scattered across City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, current Comptroller Brad Lander, former comptroller Scott Stringer, and others. Cuomo maintains his lead through every round and comes within striking distance of a majority in round 9 before sealing the win in round 10. The race remains fluid, but with one week to go and despite the media narrative of a Mamdani surge, Cuomo remains what he has been from the start: the frontrunner.
Despite the Big Apple’s progressive image, the mayoral electorate takes a markedly more skeptical view on crime, homelessness, and immigration than national narratives suggest. Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani has energized a vocal progressive flank, but their views on policing and public order are far afield from those of most New Yorkers. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo, by contrast, leads the Democratic primary and commands the broadest general election coalition—not because voters are nostalgic, but because they’re uneasy. The picture that emerges is not of a city in revolt, but of one seeking a course correction.
Tuesday’s Democratic Primary
Our ranked-choice simulation (Figure 1) shows Cuomo defeating Mamdani 56% to 44% in the final round. The former governor opens with a 13-point lead in the first round (43% to 30%), with the remaining vote scattered across City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, current Comptroller Brad Lander, former comptroller Scott Stringer, and others. Cuomo maintains his lead through every round and comes within striking distance of a majority in round 9 before sealing the win in round 10. The race remains fluid, but with one week to go and despite the media narrative of a Mamdani surge, Cuomo remains what he has been from the start: the frontrunner.
https://manhattan.institute/article/2025-nyc-mayoral-poll
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