2025 NYC Mayoral Poll Cuomo Holds His Lead One Week Before Primary Day, as Voters Express Unease with City's Direction

[Polybius]

Between June 10th and June 16th, 2025, the Manhattan Institute conducted a survey of 1,000 likely voters in New York City’s upcoming mayoral election, including an oversample of 644 Democratic primary voters to provide granular insights into primary dynamics. The sample was drawn from a national voter file and weighted to reflect the likely 2025 electorate on age, gender, race, county, education, party registration, and 2024 presidential vote. Responses were collected using a mixed-mode approach: online (400), SMS-to-web (420), live calls to cell phones (153), and landlines (27). The margin of error is ±3.1% for the likely voters sample and ±3.9% for the primary voters sample.

Despite the Big Apple’s progressive image, the mayoral electorate takes a markedly more skeptical view on crime, homelessness, and immigration than national narratives suggest. Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani has energized a vocal progressive flank, but their views on policing and public order are far afield from those of most New Yorkers. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo, by contrast, leads the Democratic primary and commands the broadest general election coalition—not because voters are nostalgic, but because they’re uneasy. The picture that emerges is not of a city in revolt, but of one seeking a course correction.

Tuesday’s Democratic Primary

Our ranked-choice simulation (Figure 1) shows Cuomo defeating Mamdani 56% to 44% in the final round. The former governor opens with a 13-point lead in the first round (43% to 30%), with the remaining vote scattered across City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, current Comptroller Brad Lander, former comptroller Scott Stringer, and others. Cuomo maintains his lead through every round and comes within striking distance of a majority in round 9 before sealing the win in round 10. The race remains fluid, but with one week to go and despite the media narrative of a Mamdani surge, Cuomo remains what he has been from the start: the frontrunner.

https://manhattan.institute/article/2025-nyc-mayoral-poll

[Prairie Gates]

1. The backlash to Me Too and BLM/ George Floyd has been historically ferocious

Several years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was a saying going around Russia:

Everything the communists told us about communism was false. But everything they told us about capitalism was true.

We might have a parallel phrase today, for it's certain that everything the feminists and the critical race theorists told us about whiteness and patriarchy was true, even if they made some (a lot of!) mistakes in their own strategies.

A backlash this strong doesn't happen without a lot of erstwhile supporters actually supporting the other position. They are the trolls of public culture, who operate without honor, just like the trolls on Internet boards.

[regnaD kciN]

4. Remember, NYC has historically voted liberal in national elections...

…but not so much in local races. How many times did they elect Ed Koch, Rudy Giuliani, and Mike Bloomberg?

[electric_blue68]

11. This NYC'r never voted for those guys! Unhappy they won.

[Prairie Gates]

22. Ed Koch was a Democrat

Granted, he was also an asshole, but he was the Democratic nominee the three times he won, and lost the Dem primary to Dinkins in 1989. Bloomberg was, ironically, to the left of Ed Koch on most issues, though he ran as a Republican. Giuliani was the supreme asshole, but he did lose to David Dinkins the first time he ran. He won two terms, since, to answer your second question, NYC Mayor was term limited after Dinkins, so Koch won three times, Giuliani twice, and Bloomberg twice.

[SSJVegeta]

2. Please do not elect another alleged sexual predator into a major office.

I'm begging.

[Polybius]

5. The major options are quite interesting

An alleged sexual harasser, an alleged crook that Trump dropped charges on, a socialist, and a clown who wears a red beret.

[SSJVegeta]

6. Everything after "sexual harrasser" is still worlds better than the harrasser

...IMHO

At least from your description.

[Polybius]

8. In general, that's true

But to run a city, I'm not so sure. I'll take Cuomo over Curtis Sliwa any day.

[Ritabert]

3. Hey New Yorkers you can do better than Cuomo

[Polybius]

9. Well, it may be between Adams, Cuomo, and Curtis Sliwa

Between those three, it's Cuomo.

[Ritabert]

10. Surely there are better candidates than those three.

Last edited Tue Jun 17, 2025, 08:25 PM - Edit history (1)

[electric_blue68]

14. I'd probably pick others

[Polybius]

17. Those may be the only three with a chance to win come November

We'll find out by next week.

[Dorian Gray]

20. They're in the primary

and the best candidates don't have a chance in hell of winning. (IMHO, I love Myrie, Adrienne Adams and Stringer.)

Despite there being multiple primary candidates, the choice is really a binary right now: Cuomo or Mamdani. So choosing how to rank the choices is important.

Mamdani is leading in the White Progressive College Educated vote. He's kicking ass in Brooklyn. He is the DSA candidate.

Cuomo is leading in the Black, Latino and Female Vote. He's kicking ass in Bronx and Staten Island. He is the business as usual candidate.

Who will be our candidate against Eric Adams and Curtis Sliwa in the general election in November? We will know next week.

[AZProgressive]

21. When I first heard of Mamdani he was probably lucky to poll 5% at the time

I had no idea he would turn out to be this impressive.

It is hard to find good data on the polls but I think Mamdani has been expanding his electorate beyond his initial base of support.

I did find this article about a poll on Cuomo's lead shrinking.

Andrew Cuomo’s lead over Zohran Mamdani shrinking in final stretch of NYC mayoral race: poll

(snip)

Another significant finding in the new poll is that Mamdani has expanded his support among Latino voters by broad margins, earning 41% support from that constituency, a 21% increase from his levels in the May survey. Cuomo’s support among Latinos, meanwhile, decreased to 36% from 41%, according to the new poll.

The boost in Latino support for Mamdani comes after New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the Democratic Party’s most popular figures, endorsed him as her No. 1 pick on June 5.

Mamdani, who’s running on a left-wing platform that includes promises to expand free childcare and freeze rent for stabilized tenants, has also aired Spanish language ads in recent weeks.

https://www.nydailynews.com/2025/06/18/andrew-cuomos-lead-zohran-mamdani-shrinking-final-stretch-nyc-mayoral-race-poll/

I'm also interested in over 50 and under 50 as there may be a big difference there but Mamdani started with almost 0 name recognition compared to Cuomo.

[electric_blue68]

12. A big Meh to Ugh on that!

I didn't know you were an S. I.'r!
Are totally surrounded by Magats, or do you have a few blue/Dem neighbors?

👋 Waves from western mid Bronx.

[Polybius]

16. Yup, SI all my life

I'm totally surrounded by Magats, I live on the South Shore of SI. It's so Red that even in 2008, there were McCain signs everywhere.

[newdeal2]

7. Up to the voters but

Sometimes a pragmatic choice is the most appealing, and that’s why I think Cuomo is doing as well as he is. In big cities you have to be able to deal with a million different interests and keep the trains running, otherwise you will get chewed up alive.

[electric_blue68]

13. A bit of a funny... haven't concentrated on our local election yet (that's Not the funny part, kinda sad, I'm usually..

much better at keeping track!) So must spend next several days on it.

The funny part. I was relooking more closely at the Voters Guide, flipping through the pages. So after all the Dems for mayor, I get to the Repugs. I give the 2 each a small "raspberry".
But then I flip the page to the third one; who is (and I'd forgotten anout) Curtis Silwa - and I
automatically give him a long, loud one! 😄

[Johonny]

15. I fear Cuomo has sites set higher than mayor of NYC

He was riding high in popularity prior to his downfall. Given what voters ignored with Trump, Cuomo could easily rise again to national politics with a win.

[Polybius]

19. Well, I'd certainly trade the current occupant of the WH for Cuomo n/t

[AZProgressive]

18. WTH is a skeptical view on crime, homeless, and immigration and why are they all lumped together?

I like Mamdani's approach to reorganize the police so they can focus on serious crimes and not wasting resources & potentially making things more dangerous for citizens by having armed police chase down mental health calls, watch the homeless, and not sure what they plan to do about immigration but it sounds like more low level stuff.

I think a priority on high end investigations should be done in all cities.