2016 Postmortem

zipplewrath

(16,698 posts)

28. Statistical flaw

Tue Dec 20, 2016, 03:54 PM

Dec 2016

The classic problem in the use of statistics for single events is that it is a logical fallacy that statistics have anything to do with the outcome of a single event. We know the statistical probability of flipping a coin, but just because it comes up heads once in a while doesn't mean the predictions for tails was wrong.

In other words, the problem is with the reader. Everyone should have been concerned when her chances were falling. When they fell below 60%, there was a real reason to worry. More importantly, when she "only" had 44% of nominal support, that left a lot of room for things to "break" his way. When you have 49%, it's hard to lose. I got concerned when she fell to 55% but never thought he could win that many Midwestern states. And he barely did. The flip side is that the basic reason he won one of them, is why he won more.

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538: Voters really did switch to Trump at the last minute [View all] pnwmom Dec 2016 OP

I dont understand all the verbiosity - how does that explain exit polls being so far off in those Kashkakat v.2.0 Dec 2016 #1

A few days before the election, there were still large numbers of undecideds. pnwmom Dec 2016 #2

That doesn't explain the exit poll 'phenomena'. triron Dec 2016 #4

I think we need to accept that exit polls are now fundamentally flawed. LonePirate Dec 2016 #14

Please read Ron Baiman's paper. triron Dec 2016 #19

It's certainly possible (likely?) that both election fraud occurs and exit polls are flawed. LonePirate Dec 2016 #26

The assumptions made triron Dec 2016 #30

The problem is self selection Yupster Dec 2016 #39

Baiman's paper is worthless because he doesn't understand the flaws of exit polling mythology Dec 2016 #43

Uh, no. You got it bass ackwards. First we get the secure, verifiable voting system Kashkakat v.2.0 Dec 2016 #32

Yes, your sequence is how it should be but people are performing it in reverse now. LonePirate Dec 2016 #34

I think you got it right triron Dec 2016 #40

When States like Florida forthemiddle Dec 2016 #35

Exit polls included a weighted component of early voters calculated through a pre-election poll. BzaDem Dec 2016 #38

Wonder about this as well. triron Dec 2016 #41

It doesn't. They weren't. nt jmg257 Dec 2016 #17

The exit polls weren't off. mythology Dec 2016 #22

Exit polls aren't true samples. They do not contact (much less get a response) Yo_Mama Dec 2016 #23

Fuck 538. They got it wrong, this is an attempt to save face realmirage Dec 2016 #3

Polls cannot measure last minute changes in mind because the polling pnwmom Dec 2016 #5

And there were a lot of undecideds this year. Ace Rothstein Dec 2016 #31

Actually, they were "getting" it right zipplewrath Dec 2016 #6

Nate does not just poll HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #11

He doesn't do polling. He bases his predictions on other people's polls and uses Guy Whitey Corngood Dec 2016 #20

Getting it right at the end of Election Day is meaningless HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #13

Statistical flaw zipplewrath Dec 2016 #28

Who got it right? Renew Deal Dec 2016 #8

Hmm. That's the same response I got when I posted that Silver was warning... Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2016 #16

Nate Silver was one of the few prognisticators who warned about... Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #42

Some did, no doubt, just not enough to mean anything. ucrdem Dec 2016 #7

The evidence says otherwise. DT's win in key swing states was so narrow -- pnwmom Dec 2016 #10

Not really. In WI he won by 1 point, but he leapt from 40 to 48 points to do it: ucrdem Dec 2016 #15

So? If the Comey bombs hadn't been dropped his leap wouldn't have been that big. n/t pnwmom Dec 2016 #36

If anyone switched to Trump at the last minute mtnsnake Dec 2016 #9

Yes, but supposedly Nate's polls predict this HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #12

Polling indicated how quickly the electorate was to switch at any miniscule piece of non-information Tiggeroshii Dec 2016 #18

So Comey's unethical behavior handed the election to Trump. yardwork Dec 2016 #21

Comey is responsible for any disaster Trump brings on our nation/planet. oasis Dec 2016 #24

Because they got the permission slip from Comey Dem2 Dec 2016 #25

Private server was her achilles heel. hollowdweller Dec 2016 #27

We can't just believe her? yallerdawg Dec 2016 #33

COMEY did it. Justice Dec 2016 #29

This defies all common sense and human nature Generator Dec 2016 #37