2016 Postmortem

triron

(22,240 posts)

4. That doesn't explain the exit poll 'phenomena'.

Reply to pnwmom (Reply #2)

Tue Dec 20, 2016, 01:38 PM

Dec 2016

Only shenanigans does.

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538: Voters really did switch to Trump at the last minute [View all] pnwmom Dec 2016 OP

I dont understand all the verbiosity - how does that explain exit polls being so far off in those Kashkakat v.2.0 Dec 2016 #1

A few days before the election, there were still large numbers of undecideds. pnwmom Dec 2016 #2

That doesn't explain the exit poll 'phenomena'. triron Dec 2016 #4

I think we need to accept that exit polls are now fundamentally flawed. LonePirate Dec 2016 #14

Please read Ron Baiman's paper. triron Dec 2016 #19

It's certainly possible (likely?) that both election fraud occurs and exit polls are flawed. LonePirate Dec 2016 #26

The assumptions made triron Dec 2016 #30

The problem is self selection Yupster Dec 2016 #39

Baiman's paper is worthless because he doesn't understand the flaws of exit polling mythology Dec 2016 #43

Uh, no. You got it bass ackwards. First we get the secure, verifiable voting system Kashkakat v.2.0 Dec 2016 #32

Yes, your sequence is how it should be but people are performing it in reverse now. LonePirate Dec 2016 #34

I think you got it right triron Dec 2016 #40

When States like Florida forthemiddle Dec 2016 #35

Exit polls included a weighted component of early voters calculated through a pre-election poll. BzaDem Dec 2016 #38

Wonder about this as well. triron Dec 2016 #41

It doesn't. They weren't. nt jmg257 Dec 2016 #17

The exit polls weren't off. mythology Dec 2016 #22

Exit polls aren't true samples. They do not contact (much less get a response) Yo_Mama Dec 2016 #23

Fuck 538. They got it wrong, this is an attempt to save face realmirage Dec 2016 #3

Polls cannot measure last minute changes in mind because the polling pnwmom Dec 2016 #5

And there were a lot of undecideds this year. Ace Rothstein Dec 2016 #31

Actually, they were "getting" it right zipplewrath Dec 2016 #6

Nate does not just poll HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #11

He doesn't do polling. He bases his predictions on other people's polls and uses Guy Whitey Corngood Dec 2016 #20

Getting it right at the end of Election Day is meaningless HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #13

Statistical flaw zipplewrath Dec 2016 #28

Who got it right? Renew Deal Dec 2016 #8

Hmm. That's the same response I got when I posted that Silver was warning... Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2016 #16

Nate Silver was one of the few prognisticators who warned about... Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #42

Some did, no doubt, just not enough to mean anything. ucrdem Dec 2016 #7

The evidence says otherwise. DT's win in key swing states was so narrow -- pnwmom Dec 2016 #10

Not really. In WI he won by 1 point, but he leapt from 40 to 48 points to do it: ucrdem Dec 2016 #15

So? If the Comey bombs hadn't been dropped his leap wouldn't have been that big. n/t pnwmom Dec 2016 #36

If anyone switched to Trump at the last minute mtnsnake Dec 2016 #9

Yes, but supposedly Nate's polls predict this HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #12

Polling indicated how quickly the electorate was to switch at any miniscule piece of non-information Tiggeroshii Dec 2016 #18

So Comey's unethical behavior handed the election to Trump. yardwork Dec 2016 #21

Comey is responsible for any disaster Trump brings on our nation/planet. oasis Dec 2016 #24

Because they got the permission slip from Comey Dem2 Dec 2016 #25

Private server was her achilles heel. hollowdweller Dec 2016 #27

We can't just believe her? yallerdawg Dec 2016 #33

COMEY did it. Justice Dec 2016 #29

This defies all common sense and human nature Generator Dec 2016 #37