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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: 538: Voters really did switch to Trump at the last minute [View all]Kashkakat v.2.0
(1,940 posts)1. I dont understand all the verbiosity - how does that explain exit polls being so far off in those
"crucial swing states" run by Repub governments... more so then in Dem states.
If these polls referenced above were done so far after the election, how does it rule out that certain small segment of people who want to align with a winner? If they lie one way (too embarrassed to say their voting for DT) who's to say they wont lie the other way?
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I dont understand all the verbiosity - how does that explain exit polls being so far off in those
Kashkakat v.2.0
Dec 2016
#1
It's certainly possible (likely?) that both election fraud occurs and exit polls are flawed.
LonePirate
Dec 2016
#26
Baiman's paper is worthless because he doesn't understand the flaws of exit polling
mythology
Dec 2016
#43
Uh, no. You got it bass ackwards. First we get the secure, verifiable voting system
Kashkakat v.2.0
Dec 2016
#32
Yes, your sequence is how it should be but people are performing it in reverse now.
LonePirate
Dec 2016
#34
Exit polls included a weighted component of early voters calculated through a pre-election poll.
BzaDem
Dec 2016
#38
He doesn't do polling. He bases his predictions on other people's polls and uses
Guy Whitey Corngood
Dec 2016
#20
Hmm. That's the same response I got when I posted that Silver was warning...
Hassin Bin Sober
Dec 2016
#16
Not really. In WI he won by 1 point, but he leapt from 40 to 48 points to do it:
ucrdem
Dec 2016
#15
So? If the Comey bombs hadn't been dropped his leap wouldn't have been that big. n/t
pnwmom
Dec 2016
#36
Polling indicated how quickly the electorate was to switch at any miniscule piece of non-information
Tiggeroshii
Dec 2016
#18