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Bernardo de La Paz

(57,772 posts)
8. From January to May, Europe has been on a big bull run while US has zeroed out and dollar declined
Fri May 23, 2025, 12:02 PM
May 2025

Markets that are zero on Year To Date are actually negative when you factor in the dollar decline.

My guess is the dollar will continue to drift lower for a while, especially since tRump thinks it is a genius idea for increasing exports and reducing the value of US debt to foreign holders. However, it also increases the cost of imports above the cost of tariff taxes and by making debt less desirable it puts upward pressure on interest rates.

Another of my guesses is that there is much more downside risk in the stock market than upside potential and that the US stock markets are expensive relative to earnings and GDP. Further, they are top-heavy with the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks and the effects of the wrecking ball approach of the regime will become more and more evident over time.

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