Let's talk about Trump's deals: ceasefires and cars.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump's deals, ceasefires, and cars.

Trump announced a ceasefire last night and immediately there were major questions about what framing was going to be used because Iran was claiming one thing and Trump was claiming something else. Before the night was finished, pieces of what little bit was agreed upon started to fall apart. Iran says the ceasefire must include Lebanon. It appeared that the US agreed, but Israel has reportedly said the ceasefire doesn't apply there.

Regardless of the shaky nature of the concepts of a plan to begin negotiations to hopefully get a deal in two weeks, Trump supporters were all over social media proclaiming that experts in international affairs didn't understand the way Trump negotiates.

They used a car deal as an example and said the dealer wants $40 grand for a Range Rover. He offers $35. They meet in the middle at $37.5. That Trump never really expected to pay $35 and that the people who negotiate for a living don't understand this incredibly complex maneuver.

Okay. You want to use a car dealer as an example? Sure. Trump walks onto the lot and sees a black guy named Obama pay $40 grand for a Range Rover. He says it was a horrible deal and says he wants to pay $35. The dealer says no. Trump insults the dealer, throws a brick through the window, and offers $37.5. The dealer says no and tells him to leave. Trump slaps the dealer. The dealer says the price is now $45,000 and it's for a beat up Xterra. Trump pays that, is banned from the dealership, and has to pay to replace everything he broke, and then walks out and puts a bumper sticker on the Xterra that says, "World's best negotiator."

But this isn't a car dealership. It's a war. Trump didn't demand $35. He demanded unconditional surrender and regime change. When Iran didn't surrender and the regime stayed in power, they won the pot at the international poker game where everybody is cheating.

The US struck at Iran, alienated allies, lost people, equipment, and had bases damaged. Iran closed the strait and gave Trump a single-finger salute. Allies that host our bases were attacked and he damaged the global economy. The US walks away diminished and weaker.

Iran, on the other hand, withstood the barrage and has brought the US to the table. The very fact that they got any conditions after Trump demanded unconditional surrender creates the perception that they beat the US. Non-state actors looking for sponsors will turn to Tehran, and Iran's influence will likely grow over the next decade after a brief decline during its reconstruction period, Trump's lack of a plan and treating this like a business deal created a situation where he's almost certain to leave with a deal worse than the one he canceled. If a deal is actually reached, we'll do a direct comparison.

All of that being said, international affairs is dynamic. What Trump should have done a month ago or shouldn't have done in his first term didn't matter yesterday. Declaring victory and getting out is the right move. I hope he sticks to it because the situation isn't likely to improve.

He'll claim victory and the least informed people in the country will believe him. But that's not a reason to keep fighting. It's a reason to better fund our schools. Most people will understand that Trump did immeasurable damage to the United States with his little stunt. The administration does get one legitimate win. Not a fake win, but a real one. A journalist was snatched by an Iranian backed group during the fighting. She was released. Granted, her release was probably obtained by people he never met, but by the way things get counted in American politics today. He gets to claim that one.

As far as the rest of this, we'll have to wait for the waffling to stop to see exactly how bad it is.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.