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Antarctica is giving us a warning of sea level rise decades in advance - now is our time to act
https://www.monash.edu/news/articles/antarctica-is-giving-us-a-warning-of-sea-level-rise-decades-in-advance-now-is-our-time-to-act18 June 2026
Scientists predict that the next three to five decades provide a critical window to anticipate and plan for Antarctic ice loss and its contribution to sea level rise.
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Based on reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a global sea level rise exceeding two metres by 2100 cannot be ruled out under high-emission scenarios due to the large-scale collapse of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
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The research aims to answer the question of how much ice Antarctica will lose over the next 30-50 years, and whether that loss can be predicted reliably enough to give governments and nation states sufficient lead time to respond effectively. The study assessed predictability in ice sheet model projections of sea level rise within this near-term window.
…
However, this predictability breaks down by the end of the 21st century when physical processes that can rapidly accelerate ice loss become increasingly likely. For example, ice resting on bedrock below sea level can enter a rapid retreat, which once triggered, is difficult to reverse and could drive ice loss far beyond what near-term climate change projections would suggest.
…
McCormack, F.S., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F. et al. Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise. Nature 654, 609–613 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10614-4
Scientists predict that the next three to five decades provide a critical window to anticipate and plan for Antarctic ice loss and its contribution to sea level rise.
…
Based on reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a global sea level rise exceeding two metres by 2100 cannot be ruled out under high-emission scenarios due to the large-scale collapse of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
…
The research aims to answer the question of how much ice Antarctica will lose over the next 30-50 years, and whether that loss can be predicted reliably enough to give governments and nation states sufficient lead time to respond effectively. The study assessed predictability in ice sheet model projections of sea level rise within this near-term window.
…
However, this predictability breaks down by the end of the 21st century when physical processes that can rapidly accelerate ice loss become increasingly likely. For example, ice resting on bedrock below sea level can enter a rapid retreat, which once triggered, is difficult to reverse and could drive ice loss far beyond what near-term climate change projections would suggest.
…