USA Jobs Shock - Joe Blogs

[TexasTowelie]

The U.S. economy is still growing — but the jobs aren’t.

Headline GDP numbers look healthy, markets seem calm, and policymakers keep talking about a soft landing. Yet underneath the surface, something very different is happening in the labor market.

In November, the U.S. lost jobs overall — with small businesses cutting sharply, even as medium and large firms continued to hire. At the same time, hiring momentum has slowed, job switching has collapsed, and fewer unemployed Americans are finding work each month.

This is what economists are calling a “jobless boom” — growth without meaningful job creation.

In this video, I break down:
• Why small firms are shedding jobs first
• How higher interest rates and tighter credit are hitting small businesses hardest
• What the Chicago Fed hiring rate really tells us about the labor market
• Why big companies are still hiring — and why that can be misleading
• How rising bankruptcies and record national debt fit into the bigger picture

This isn’t a recession video — yet. But historically, when growth and jobs disconnect like this, it’s rarely a good sign.

Chapters:
0:00 Intro
1:01 GDP
4:44 JOBS
7:15 UNEMPLOYMENT
7:56 EMPLOYMENT
8:23 HIRING
9:17 BANKRUPTCIES
9:50 INTEREST RATES
10:34 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

1. Marking to watch later

[OnlinePoker]

2. He seems to be cherry picking the data.

Yes, the unemployment rate has gone up to 4.6%, but the number of people in the labor pool has gone up by over 3 million since November 2024 and the number of employed people have gone up by 2.56 million. This doesn't indicate to me a shrinking of job opportunities because of AI as he claims. Also, 2.6 million of the increased labor pool is people reentering which would seem to indicate a positive attitude towards the economy.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

[TexasTowelie]

3. I have a different perspective about your last statement:

Also, 2.6 million of the increased labor pool is people reentering which would seem to indicate a positive attitude towards the economy.

I am 60 and disabled, while my brother is 64 and disabled. While we are in better shape than some people, neither of us have completely dismissed the idea of reentering the job market if economic conditions grow worse. I believe that people are being forced into seeking employment because of economic hardship rather than having a positive attitude about the economy.

[progree]

5. Graph of consumer confidence - not a "happy days are here again" picture

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/



So, we're at pandemic era lows, but there's no virus- or bacteria- pandemic. It's all Trumpdemic now.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment survey looks very similar

[progree]

4. Quite a contrast from the headline nonfarm payroll numbers

Last edited Tue Dec 30, 2025, 03:15 PM - Edit history (1)

Establishment Survey
Table B-1 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
From Nov 2024 to Nov. 2025: 158,619k to 159,552k non-farm payroll jobs, an increase of 933k
Only a 119k increase from April (17k/month average), which is what everyone is yammering about, including Powell
who thinks these estimates are too high by 60k/month average (although he was speaking of April thru SEPTEMBER, 6 days before the October and November numbers came out) https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20251210.pdf

Non-farm payrolls: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
. . . monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth


Household Survey
Employed: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000 (an increase of 2,558k from Nov. 2024 to Nov. 2025)
. . . monthly changes: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
Labor Force: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000
. . . monthly changes: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

Edited to fix the last link's URL, and then out of curiosity I looked at the labor force growth some more.
On the labor force, the monthly changes one (the one just above that has output_view=net_1mth) doesn't show anything for October or November, but the one with the total numbers shows a September value and a November value, and the increase in the 2-month period is 323k, an average of 162k/month FWIW.

The previous 7 monthly changes were: 232 544 -625 -130 -38 436 470 (the last one being September's incease over August). All FWIW. The 3 negative numbers in the middle sum to -793k, the total of the 7 numbers sum to 889k or 127k/month average.