Administration signaling job losses tomorrow, blaming their own policy of mass deportation

[bigtree]

Aaron Rupar @atrupar
Peter Navarro: "The jobs report comes out tomorrow. We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like ... Wall Street has to adjust for the fact that we're deporting millions of illegals out of the job market."

...do tell.

Brookings:

The downward population pressure stemming from negative net migration has important implications for the macroeconomy.

In recent years, growth in the U.S.-born working-age population has been weak, and nearly all growth in the labor force has stemmed from immigration flows. The 2022–24 immigration surge was accompanied by robust job growth, with immigrants both supplying labor and generating demand for goods and services.

Conversely, the recent slowdown in population growth has affected the level of employment growth consistent with an unchanged unemployment rate, often called “breakeven employment growth.”

We estimate that, in the second half of 2025, breakeven employment growth of 20,000 to 50,000 jobs each month was consistent with immigration flows. That number could dip into negative territory over 2026. Reduced immigration also has modest dampening effects on GDP and will weaken consumer spending by an estimated $60–$110 billion combined over the two years.

The population of immigrants not autho-
rized to be in the United States is mostly of
working age—two-thirds of them are in the
prime working ages of 25 to 54 compared to
less than 40 percent of U.S. citizens.1
• About 8 million unauthorized immigrants
are employed, which is about 5 percent of
the U.S. workforce.2
• Unauthorized immigrants make up a par-
ticularly large share of workers in several
industries, accounting for 22 percent of all
farmworkers, 15 percent of construction
workers, and 8 percent of manufacturing
workers (which includes food production
such as meatpacking).3
• Seventy-nine percent of unauthorized immi-
grants have been in the country over 10 years.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/macroeconomic-implications-of-immigration-flows-in-2025-and-2026-january-2026-update/

Economic research has found that:
Past deportations have harmed U.S.
workers with lost jobs and lower
wages.

For example, the deporta-
tion of 454,000 immigrant workers
not authorized to be in the United
States from 2008 to 2015 reduced the
employment share of U.S.-born work-
ers by 0.5 percent and reduced their
hourly wages by 0.6 percent.

Future large-scale deportations have
been estimated to reduce the size of the
U.S. economy. Estimates of U.S. eco-
nomic loss range from 2.6 percent to
6.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product
(the most widely used measure of
national income). At 2023 levels those
equate to losses to the economy of
between $711 billion and $1.7 trillion.

Employment losses for future mass
deportation have been estimated to
be as high as 3.6 percent.

https://carsey.unh.edu › sites › default › files › media › economic-impact-mass-deportation-lit-review-1.pdf

[dutch777]

1. Yes, out of the job market....with NO ONE to replace them. Still playing checkers there eh, Navarro?

AI isn't going to be cutting up our meat, picking our crops, building our houses, washing the dishes and making our hotel bed. And I don't know about other people's kids, but I know mine won't be looking to fill in at any of those jobs either.

[WSHazel]

3. More than just that

Immigrants are hugely important in technology, healthcare and financial services, and our brilliant Administration has sent them "back where they came from", which also means taking all of that economic activity, and supporting capital investment, with them. We are not even scratching the surface yet of the economic damage done by Trump, Bessent, Navarro and friends.

[gab13by13]

6. The billionaires see it from a different perspective,

poor people are nothing more than cockroaches. Look at the idiots who have titles in Krasnov's administration, they couldn't run a lemonade stand.

It's the billionaires behind the scenes who are calling the shots. Steven Miller isn't a billionaire but he is more the president than Krasnov.

[dutch777]

7. Yep, no one in power is thinking long term or doing the math. Maybe Barron Trump will empty bed pans?

[bigtree]

8. right, they're halfway to making that case with this disingenous plea for WS to cover for them

...and want to believe that just shutting their own eyes and ears to the facts of immigrants contributions to the economy massively outweighing their cost means WE don't recognize their value (even more if you drop the overblown deportation regime and make violations more of an administratiove matter than criminal, you can eliminate the need for more mulit-billion dollar concentration camps to hold these worker in as the Trump regime is planning, for instance, instead of letting them contribute to the economy).

[gab13by13]

5. Billionaires want to eliminate poor people,

AI will figure out how to do all of those menial jobs. Poor people just clog up the hospitals and rich people don't want anyone ahead of them in line.

Project 2025 wants depopulation; concentration camps are springing up all across the country, armed goons are allowed to murder unwashed Americans. How many people are they killing in those concentration camps?

Poor people are domestic terrorists, they are poisoning the blood of billionaires.

[newdeal2]

2. Why aren't Americans filling those jobs like they promised?

It’s almost like they lied.

[bigtree]

9. the negative effect on American jobs and wages is as well-documented as this administration's ignorance of it all

2023:

In the study published in the Journal of Population Economics at the University of California, Davis, analysts found that the drop in immigrants corresponded to a decline in employment in specific occupations such as retail, social assistance, accommodation and food services, and non-durable goods manufacturing.

While immigration numbers were already going through a slowdown due to the Trump administration's migration policies, the drastic decline in migrants entering the U.S. was further emphasized after 2019, specifically among Mexican migrants.

The net growth of working-age non-U.S.-born individuals saw a 1.65 million population gap between May 2019 and June 2022, the researchers found. During the said period, the accommodation and food services sector experienced a 30% drop in employment as migration declined.

Due to the employment decline, Peri and his co-author, Reem Zaiour, researched whether Americans would fill open jobs that were usually taken up by migrants. "Jobs were out there, but they were not filled," Peri said.

(the correlation is a myth and an illusion that persists because many elected officials obscure or downplay this)

Experts from the U.S. think tank Brookings previously suggested that immigrants aren't "stealing" as many U.S. jobs as the Trump administration stated. "Undocumented workers often work the unpleasant, back-breaking jobs that native-born workers are not willing to do," Brookings senior fellow Vanda Felbab-Brown wrote in a 2017 essay, "The Wall."


...moreover, the bad job numbers can't just be explained by blaming 'immigrant' anything:

...from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 2026:

Around half of the decline in monthly employment payroll growth is attributable to declining net immigration. A range of different computations attribute between 40 and 60 percent of the decline in nonfarm employment growth to slower net migration.

The decline in employment growth is broad-based and less pronounced in states and sectors with larger shares of unauthorized employment.1 The 10 states with nearly 70 percent of unauthorized workers employ more than half of American workers but account for less than half of the decline in employment growth. The six industry sectors that employ almost 80 percent of unauthorized workers also employ more than half of American workers but account for only 36 percent of the decline in employment growth.

Median real wage growth has halved, dropping by even more for workers who compete with unauthorized workers. A large decline in net migration might have muted effects on wages as labor demand and supply offset each other. However, median real wages in 2025 are growing at close to half the rate of 2023 and 2024 (1.7 times slower growth). This is more pronounced for low-wage workers (2.5 times slower), who might be expected to benefit the most from less competition from unauthorized workers.

Finally, we find that the share of workers who are employed has declined while the share of people who are not in the labor force has increased. If a decline in net immigration was largely behind the decline in the level of employment, then we might expect the shares of workers in employment, nonemployment, and unemployment to remain steady. Instead, there is a clear shift away from employment and toward nonparticipation in the labor force, a sign of a generally discouraging hiring market.

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/immigration-cant-explain-declining-employment-growth

[gab13by13]

4. Yup, Krasnov repeatedly said

the immigrants were stealing American jobs.