Something Is Sour In Tennessee -- And It's Not The Whiskey (Aftyn Behn)

[NJCher]

Note: DDHQ is Decision Desk Headquarters.

I've done some snips below, but it's hard to understand this story unless you see the illustrations. Link to "This Will Hold" story.

Because the numbers aren't adding up (very much resembles what happened with Harris), they are asking for a recount.


How Does 99.4% Reporting Turn Into 31,000 More Ballots?

snip

Tennessee has had questionable election math for decades—but the jump from 99.4% reporting at 148,853 votes to a final total of 179,899, an increase of more than 31,000 ballots after the bell, is statistically absurd.

snip

What happened in this race defies math, procedure, and even DDHQ’s own brag about “40 updates per minute.” With the race already called, DDHQ displayed 99.4% reporting and 148,853 votes counted, signaling to viewers that the finish line had essentially been crossed. At 99.4%, we’re not talking about thousands of ballots left to count.

The Math Isn’t Mathing—Again

That 99.4% means the remaining ballots should have numbered at most around a thousand. Instead, the final certified tally jumped to 179,899—an increase of more than 31,000 ballots after the race was supposedly “essentially finished.”

There is no legitimate scenario where 0.6% of precincts suddenly produces a 17% surge in total votes.

Illustration (go to link to see numerous graphs showing the statistical anomaly).

There is no legitimate scenario where 0.6% of precincts suddenly produces a 17% surge in total votes.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. Good luck proving it. Something sure is sour.

[SheltieLover]

2. Every time I have voted here, this is what happens:

Pukes are ALWAYS isted first, just as corp media listed Aftyn's oppobnt first 99% of the time.

So you have a puke name at the top of each section.

The box to select candidate is in the UPPER left corner.

Every time, the puke candidate comes up as having been selected.

Each time, I've had to redo vote 3 or 4 times to get the Dem to show as having been selected.

No I didn't complain because numerous people already had. There is a news story every major election about how the eqpt was inspected due to complaints of fhis obvious malfunctiion and "found to.be working just fine."

Btw, same exact thing has happened to gs every time we have gone to vote.

I realize this is incomprehensible to you, but the avg voter in TN is far below the intelligence level needed to be aware of this & petsistent enough to keep redoing their vote.

Tn is disgusting, truly

Btw, i do not vote in Aftyn's District.


Ty for sharing.

[murielm99]

4. In Illinois, there is a drawing to determine the ballot order.

I participated in the drawing when I was county chair. Anyone can go to witness the drawing. The first time I participated, I "won." The Democrats were listed first on the ballot. Our former chair teased me and said it was beginner's luck. He had never won the drawing.

[SheltieLover]

5. Yes I know. Spent most of my life in the Chgo burbs

I suppose this is just another example of the many differences beteeen civilized society & the red shithole TN.

[murielm99]

6. Work to change the laws?

[SheltieLover]

10. Not me.

Too old & tired. Frankly, this state is so corrupt, I'm not sure anyone could make a difference here.

[iemanja]

3. This again

Maybe you can get a law passed that mandates that any election Democrats lose is null and void.

[cmmngrnd]

7. No evidence of anything "sour" - 5 things to consider

The claim in the source article at This Will Hold (TWH) is that the vote totals jumped from 148,853 at 99.4% reporting to 179,899 at 100%, indicating some kind of ballot stuffing or vote dumping of about 31,000 votes. There is no evidence for this claim.

I do not offer this rebuttal to say that Republicans are not cheating elections. They are already doing so through legislation, specifically gerrymandering and legal barriers to voting. I offer this to try to see clearly what is and isn't happening in elections to give Republicans an unfair advantage. I do not feel it helpful for Democrats to have unsubstantiated vote-flipping or ballot stuffing conspiracy theories mirroring the same conspiracy theories we derided when put forward by Republicans.

1. TWH does not offer any evidence for their claim. They show one graphic from NBC showing a vote total of 179,889 but do not show a timeline of when votes were reported. A timeline is needed to show the jump from 148,853 to 179,899. They also show a graphic of voter turnout (x-axis) vs vote percent by party (y-axis) for only one county. This graph shows that when voter turnout increases, the Republicans do better. This does not have any bearing on the primary claim regarding the 31,000 votes. (Note: It actually makes sense that in a region where Republican registration outnumbers Democratic, the more people that vote means the vote totals mirror the registration totals. )

2. DDHQ, a cited source in the article, does not offer evidence for the claim. The numbers presented were taken from the Decision Desk Headquarters (DDHQ). The only graphic shows 179,899 votes with ">95%" reporting. There is no timeline, which again is needed to show the 31,000 vote jump.

3. The local Democratic party has observers during the entire voting process. They observe polling stations during early voting, during same day voting, and during mail in ballot acceptance and counting. These people are deeply familiar with Tennessee law and voting processes. If they are not raising alarms, then there are likely no alarms to raise. It is unlikely that people not intimately affiliated with the local elections are going to find any anomalies the Democrats on site missed. The Shelby County elections commission site has a great explainer of the voting process from start to finish.

4. Per Tennessee law, all elections are subject to audit as a routine part of the process, and Democrats participate in the audit process. The selection of what is audited is random, which makes it harder to hide cheating. (Note: This appears to be a standard procedure nationally. I know we do the same in Florida.)

5. There is no motivation for the local Republican party to violate Tennessee law and make national news. This is a heavily gerrymandered district in a reliably Republican state. As much as Behn outperformed past elections, there was little risk to the Republicans that they would lose a fair election. They had no need to cheat.

[reACTIONary]

9. Thanks!!!

[iemanja]

11. The Republican was ahead by 15 points

with 25% of precincts reporting and by 9% at the end of the night. The only thing odd was Democrats thinking they could win a race in a deep red district.

[TheRickles]

26. That shift was because the most heavily blue district (Nashville) took the longest to count and report.

[NJCher]

13. They had no need to cheat.

😂

We always get these posts like yours whenever something like this is posted here.

Always.

[LymphocyteLover]

17. A timeline isn't needed. It's simple math. First they say only 1800 votes left then it jumps up

to 31,000 more votes.

It's weird. It doesn't mean vote rigging necessarily but they also show funny precinct data about how higher precinct turnout leads to more R votes.


It's a bit of evidence and there could be a simple explanation for it, like just different reporting from different news sites.

Still it's still odd to see the vote count jump up like that.

[cmmngrnd]

19. No evidence of a 31,000 vote jump

The final vote count was 179,899. The graphic shown at the TWH site shows 179,899 votes with 99% counted. The graphic shown at DDHQ shows 179,899 votes with ">95%" reporting. They all match.

The claim was that 148,853 votes were tallied with 99.4% reporting. Where is that graphic? Where is the evidence for that?

Yes, it's simple math that 31,000 is greater than 1,800, but nobody has shown you or me that it happened.

This is why a timeline is needed - to show that at some point 99.4% of the votes resulted in 148,853 votes and 100% of the votes resulted in 179,899. That would show the suspicious jump.

If it happened, show the evidence. Until then all you have is an unverified claim by a third party that did not have direct access to the voting results.

[SSJVegeta]

22. Idk about the OPs claim but I was tracking NYTs county results and they had it at more than 95% reporting even tho

The State SOS still only had 5/7 of most of the county precincts reporting for Nashville (cant remember the County it is in). They later corrected it to 93% when I refreshed later.

I imagine a similar mistake could have been had at DDHQ. The press makes mistakes sometimes, but that's nothing new. Also sites like DDHQ and NYTimes have less than perfect methods of estimating (maybe sometiems guesstimating) total number of votes counted. There is no certainty of exactly how many votes are left to count.

[LymphocyteLover]

31. yes, I agree with the idea that these media sites likely have imperfect counts

[SSJVegeta]

33. I mean they often report based on percentage of precincts reporting.

Sometimes that could be convoluted with their expected votes estimate too. Since 95% of precincts could have e reported, but depending on the size of the last precincts, they could have 95% of the votes still left to count.

[LymphocyteLover]

32. The claim of 148,853 votes tallied with 99.4% reporting is in the black DDHQ graphic at the top

Unfortunately it's hard to see. I had to enlarge the image to see it and the image is low res.

[FBaggins]

34. I don't see it

I see the 148k... but it's just ">95%" next to it (which is the same thing they show currently)

[Wiz Imp]

36. No it's not.

That graphic shows >95%" reporting. You are correct about it showing 148,853 votes

[TheRickles]

27. Thank you!

[reACTIONary]

8. Jeeze, not this shit again.

[NJCher]

14. You're going to get

“This shit” again and again AND again until we go to a paper ballot.

[cmmngrnd]

21. Every county in TN 7 uses some form of paper ballot

All of this information is publicly available.

Voting systems used in Tennessee with a county by county listing.

For the counties involved in the Dec 2 election:
Benton Hart Verify Scan
Cheatham Unisyn OpenElect
Davidson ES&S ExpressVote
Decatur ES&S ExpressVote
Dickson ES&S ExpressVote
Hickman Hart Verify Scan
Houston ES&S ExpressVote
Humphreys Hart Verify Scan
Montgomery MicroVote Infinity WPAT
Perry MicroVote Infinity WPAT
Robertson MicroVote Infinity WPAT
Stewart ES&S ExpressVote
Wayne MicroVote Infinity WPAT
Williamson ES&S ExpressVote

Hart Verify Scan - Paper ballot, optical scanner
Unisyn OpenElect - Touch screen to select, paper ballot printed for voter, optically scanned
ES&S ExpressVote - Electronic vote, paper ballot printed for vote
MicroVote Infinity WPAT - Electronic vote, paper ballot verifiable by voter before confirming vote

[EdmondDantes_]

25. Well that's awkward for the conspiracy theories

[iemanja]

29. I'm sure she'll be self deleting now

and apologizing for her error.

[questionseverything]

35. I read they bought touchscreens with huge paper rolls that record the voters selections

No human being sees or counts those 🧻 “ ballots “

Tennessee has no recount provision, it’s all transparent as
Mudd

[cmmngrnd]

38. Partially Correct

Big rolls of paper ballots that no human sees: Only the Microvote system uses the paper roll, but the voter does get to see the ballot before confirming their vote. It's also used for post-election audits, which are a normal part of the process. The Microvote setup is a weird system, and does not seem easy on the voter imho. Take a look at the manufacturer video. MicroVote is used in 3 of the 14 counties in TN 7. I put links in my post so you can see what all the Tennessee counties use and how they work.

Tennessee has no recount provision: True, or at least no automatic recount provision. People can file for recounts, but it appears (to my quick reading of the link) that it ultimately has to be court ordered. They seem to have no rules for who pays for any recounts. Informative link: https://verifiedvoting.org/recountlaw/tennessee/

[reACTIONary]

23. Shelbe Co. uses paper ballots, so...

.... what is the problem?

Next Logic and Accuracy Testing begins. This is the process to make certain that voter choices are being accurately recorded and tabulated. It is performed by SCEC staff in bi-partisan teams. Test decks are then created, which includes at least one ballot of every type, and the sufficient numbers of ballots, so each candidate can receive a unique number of votes. We include at least one write-in vote for every race and include under- and over-voted ballots to make sure the equipment handles these special situations correctly. This test deck is tallied by hand. Then it used for test voting on an Early Voting machine.

Finally, the test deck is scanned by the paper optical scanning machine.

All three counts are compared and must match. The test deck is printed on pink ballot stock and each ballot is clearly stamped “Test Deck – Do Not Count,” eliminating the possibility that the test ballots could be counted on Election Night.

https://www.electionsshelbytn.gov/life-cycle-election

Let's focus on being a reality-based party that deals with reality based issues and solves real problems for voters with reality based solutions.

[SSJVegeta]

12. They dont actually know how many ballots are left. Sometimes there are more than they think. Sometimes less.

But the estimated 99% reporting is just that: an estimate.

And sometimes it is a very bad estimate.

[Greg_In_SF]

15. We lost

by a considerable margin. That's it. We just have to deal with it

[Celerity]

16. This Will Hold has become BlueAnon, pushing CT election denialism far too often. If Kari Lake was a Dem, she'd lead it.

They are a toxic, corrosive force who undermine the Democratic Party's GOTV initiatives by engendering a 'why bother, it's all rigged' mentality.

They also openly attack the Biden regime, the Harris campaign, and the thousands of Dem election lawyers/observers with their CT, as the clear logical conclusion from TWH's line of reasoning is that the Dem power players listed above were either staggeringly incompetent and/or in on the election rigging themselves.

[NJCher]

18. Link?

I’ve never seen the attacks you claim. However , it might well be deserved. Anyway, I’m sure you can back up your claim, so let’s see it.

[Celerity]

24. the attacks are the logical implications of the This Will Hold claims, I already stated that clearly in my reply

[Sympthsical]

20. This is why I keep conspiracy bananas on the counter

I give this one three conspiracy bananas.

[travelingthrulife]

30. Was Elon around?

[Wiz Imp]

37. This Will Hold has zero credibility