New poll finds that Newsom beats Vance while AOC only ties Vance...

[PeaceWave]

A new survey from the University of Massachusetts Lowell and YouGov asked Americans how they feel about prospective races between Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez, two potential contenders for the Democratic Party, and Vance, viewed as a frontrunner for the Republican Party if he chooses to run.

https://www.newsweek.com/aocs-gavin-newsom-chances-beating-jd-vance-2028-polls-10968172

The poll found that Newsom would be in a stronger position than Ocasio-Cortez against Vance, though many voters said they were undecided in both hypothetical matchups.

[UT_democrat]

1. Heavy sigh

We will never have something nice

[Renew Deal]

2. Those are not easy comparisons

Newsom is a well known big state governor. AOC is a well-known congressperson without executive government experience. What AOC has going for her is authenticity. Not sure if that's enough to win a Democratic primary or a presidential GE. I hope she runs for senate.

[JI7]

3. Unfortunately there are men that usually vote democratic

including for women many times but they will refuse to vote for a woman and especially woman of color for president.

[stopdiggin]

4. I really don't see Vance at the top of a 28 ticket

JD Vance was a total nobody clear up through 24 - and the VP role has done very little to enhance.
Guy has very little popularity, and an even smaller 'base'.

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. He won't be the GOP nominee

Even if Trump personally anoints him as his successor.

The GOP primaries will quite entertaining, dozens scrambling for donors, media attention and MAGA approval. It will be interesting to see if any non-MAGA Republicans run (Liz Cheney?)

[leftstreet]

12. If they can destroy MAGA, yeah it'd be Cheney

But I don't know if they can before then

[Silent Type]

17. Depends on whether trump annoints him, or whether Vance pulls an Amendment 22 coup before 2028.

[stopdiggin]

22. won't matter. (Trump's 'endorsements' have done surprisingly little ... )

And his 'cult of personality' just doesn't transfer .. Or at least that is the experience so far. And JD Vance ... Just doesn't have any appeal or star power.

As far as the 22nd - you'll have to take that up with someone who's a little more geared in that direction. Not my thing.

[onenote]

28. What is an Amendment 22 coup?

And how would Vance use the 22nd amendment to become president before 2028, if that's what you're suggesting.

[Silent Type]

30. 25th. Typo, sorry. Won't correct it because I think most folks will get it.

[onenote]

31. Vance can't single-handedly invoke the 25th amendment.

He'd need a majority of the Cabinet, and that's unlikely since Trump would undoubtedly get wind of the plot and would fire disloyal cabinet members before they had a chance to act. And even if somehow Vance could marshal the support of a majority of Cabinet, Trump could simply send a letter to the House and Senate saying he isn't unable to perform the duties of the Office and he would resume the powers of the Office. While Vance and a majority of the Cabinet could then reiterate the claim that Trump is unable to perform the duties of the Office, as a practical matter, the moment Trump resumed office could fire every Cabinet member that sided with Vance. Finally, if it got that far, it would take a vote of 2/3 of both the House and Senate to remove Trump permanently -- a higher bar than impeaching and convicting him.

In short, so long as Trump is not unconscious, it's unlikely the 25th can successfully be invoked against him.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. It's early but imho it's Newsom's nomination if he wants it.

[bigmonk]

6. Oh, lord!

The Democratic Party has ran two women for President and lost. Both were highly qualified and lost to DONALD TRUMP! You know what is more important than principles? Winning. There are 10's of millions of Americans who wouldn't vote for a woman under any circumstance. Enough to cost the Democratic Party the next election. You can pick the most electable man or sit back and watch another electoral failure.

[RockRaven]

7. You go to the polls with the electorate you have, not the electorate you might want or

wish to have at a later time.

If the American voters are disappointing in their opinions, we should recognize that and deal with it and win, not deny it and lose.

[stopdiggin]

18. preach it! no seriously - the delusional needs to be beaten back into the corner ..

(if only temporarily) - in order to give the realistic a chance at actually WINNING.
That's the way the game is played. And if you want to win the game ...

[BannonsLiver]

8. "BUt hE cAnT WiN tHe rUsT bElT"

A Putinite Musk bro told me that.

[stopdiggin]

16. I'm afraid that's a conventional wisdom - widely shared

(even among a good number in CA) And, yeah - looking at any kind of 'map' - is further disheartening.

[BannonsLiver]

24. Meh

Not big into 1980s style geography based thinking when handicapping elections in 2025. The old norms are dead.

[stopdiggin]

29. There are still swing states? And those that are - nobody's idea .. ?

While year after year I keep hearing stuff about, "Might have a real shot at Iowa .."

Yeah right!

Newsom might be able to beat a little toadying lickspittle like Vance ... But I don't think Vance will be the Repub's pick. And I think he's pretty long odds against a Rubio.

Just as my off the cuff read ...

[bob4460]

9. I am as a liberal/democratic as they come

And if the Democratic party runs another woman they will lose again. This isn't the way I want it, but this is America and a lot of men will not vote for a woman president.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. Neither will be the nominee in 2028

I don’t think AOC will run…yet, but will hopefully run for Schumer’s seat in the senate.

Newsom is the loudest voice in the room at this point, but that isn’t going to get him through primary season all by itself.

He will probably get some big donations from Silicon Valley tech bros, but whether he can successfully compete for donors dollars with all the other contenders remains to be seen.

Although my favourite is Whitmer, the writing is clearly on the wall, and the Dems won’t nominate a woman or POC in 2028.

With that understanding, my sense is the odds favour Chris Murphy and Andy Beshear.

[BannonsLiver]

25. Is that basically your F5 key at this point?

[Scubamatt]

13. How about . . .

Newsom for pres and AOC for VP?

I like Biden a lot but one criticism I had was that it didn't seem to me that he gave Kamala enough opportunities to independently shine/introduce herself to the American public during the early years of the Administration, so that she became better known throughout the country. Maybe a Newsom/AOC team could do a better job at that?

[PeaceWave]

23. If I were Newsom, I would tap Wes Moore as my VP.

[Gore1FL]

14. It's 2025. nt

[rollin74]

15. AOC would have a 0% chance of winning the electoral college

unfortunately, I don’t think Newsom is likely to win the general election either but has a much better chance than AOC would in my opinion

I hope someone else will emerge as the front runner

[beaglelover]

19. WAY too early.

[Prairie Gates]

20. A white heterosexual man with hair performs better nationally than a Latino woman

In other news, dog bites man.

Vance isn't running, by the way. Trump is.

[QueerDuck]

21. I'm glad that Newsom is polling ahead of Vance. Fortunately, Vance is fairly low bar to begin with.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out if/when (when!) Vance is the "incumbent" President... having been sworn-in mid term after Trump's timely death (he's old and really not looking good).

Hurry, Satan! Hurry!

[Bread and Circuses]

26. Sadly, this country doesn't think women are smart, strong or capable.

[NoRethugFriends]

27. Too early for it to mean anything at all