How the GOP's Texas Redistricting Could Backfire

[applegrove]

How the GOP’s Texas Redistricting Could Backfire

July 11, 2025 at 6:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 37 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2025/07/11/how-the-gops-texas-redistricting-could-backfire/

Abby Livingston: “The 2021 map was drawn for incumbent protection in a wave year, which could also be the case next year if historical trends hold up. To pick up new seats, Republican voters will need to be pulled from safe Republican seats to redden currently Democratic districts.”

The math: “If Republicans go after three seats this way, the changes can probably be made with little fanfare and concentrate mostly on South Texas, which is trending toward the G.O.P. anyway. But if they go big — aiming for, say, five seats — the lines could make reelection much more difficult for Republican incumbents in Houston and Dallas.

Texas Tribune: As Texas Republicans prepare for mid-decade redistricting, cautionary tales loom from the past.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

1. Republicans are trying to further gerrymander a state that already has districts that look like this:

Link to tweet

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2. Crazy!

[FBaggins]

3. It's a risk that only affects the next couple cycles

TX/FL look to pick up a huge number of seats between them with the next census. They must be awfully worried about ‘26 to try to squeeze those seats out early

[LetMyPeopleVote]

4. Texas Redistricting-As a voting rights volunteer, I was amused to learn a new term "dummymander"

I have been volunteering on voting rights/voter protection since 2004 when I went to Florida as part of the Kerry Edwards voter protection team. I have testified before committees of both the Texas House and Senate on gerrymandered districts. Part of my testimony was used in a prior lawsuit that unfortunately failed. Texas is heavily gerrymandered. My congressional district went from a R+1 to a R+21 as part of the last gerrymander. trump wants Ohio and Texas to re-gerrymander their districts to help in the midterms. I was amused to see that these efforts run a risk of failing

Republicans run a risky strategy for holding the House that rests on redrawn maps
www.politico.com/news/2025/07...

— David Darmofal (@daviddarmofal.bsky.social) 2025-07-11T18:40:41.292Z

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/11/texas-redistricting-00448145

But in Texas, Republicans are in danger of creating a so-called dummymander, whereby an attempt to draw more seats for one party accidentally benefits the other. Texas’ congressional map already heavily favors the GOP, so any changes to further benefit the party would have to walk a careful line. Adding Republican voters to blue districts to reduce Democrats’ margins means taking those same voters out of the red districts where they reside. The result is more competitive districts across the board — ones Democrats hope to take advantage of as they harness anti-Trump energy in the midterms.

“They are playing a little bit of roulette with these maps,” said Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas). “In a wave election like what we have a potential opportunity for in ‘26 I think it makes these Republicans very vulnerable.”

Texas has 38 House seats, with 25 held by Republicans. Members of the state’s Democratic delegation huddled with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as the redistricting talk ramped up, with follow-up meetings planned.

Jeffries warned in a statement Wednesday that an aggressive map could “result in making several incumbent House Republicans vulnerable to fierce general election challenges.”

“Republicans are cutting off their nose to spite their face,” he added.....

Democrats are almost certain to sue over whatever new maps are created in both Ohio and Texas, said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.

“I imagine we will have a lot to say about the map they create and the legalities of it,” he said Thursday.

On top of everything else, there is a trial going on with respect to the Texas maps that these efforts may affect.

This will be fun to watch

[tanyev]

5. Yep, Texas House District 70 was a new district in 2022.

It’s surrounded by red districts, but Democrat Mihaela Plesa won in 2022 and she won again in 2024! I guess they created it to grab as many Democratic voters as they could, but it was still a shock to see a Democrat win in an area where Democrats didn’t even have candidates for every race on the ballot when we moved here a couple decades ago.