Israel says Iran was racing toward a nuclear weapon. US intel says it was years away

[indusurb]

" But US intelligence assessments had reached a different conclusion – not only was Iran not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, it was also up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to a target of its choosing, according to four people familiar with the assessment."

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-bomb-us-intelligence-years-away

Yet according to Netanyahu, Iran has been just weeks away from having a nuke ever since 2012.

This is madness.

[Autumn]

1. Doesn't matter what US intelligence has to say. The US will back up Israel

and what Netanyahu does. The war machine will roll on, no matter what.

[Celerity]

7. from around 13 years ago:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/pms-bomb-explodes-online/

[Ponietz]

2. Netanyahu has cried "wolf" almost 30 years

but the May, 2025 IAEA report changes things.

[LexVegas]

3. Three years away for a country thats stated foreign policy is wiping Israel off the face of the earth?

I support Israel even more with that piece of intel.

[indusurb]

5. Alrighty then,

So just bomb, bomb bomb away, even though Iran is, and never has been anywhere close to fulfilling that threat. Just preemptively remove Iran from the face of the Earth.

That seems dangerously close to becoming just like those you hate, if not worse.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

9. Should we have followed the McCain proposal to "bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran"

thirty years ago when they were just as close as they are now according to Israel?

At some point we have to start telling Israel to stop with bullshit.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

4. Did you even bother to read the full article?

Or did you just post one part of the article to support your claim?
The article goes on to debunk your thread.

[indusurb]

6. Oh, I read it

Apparently all Iran has, or had, is near weapons grade material. It takes a long time to enrich from near weapons grade to actual weapons grade. Right now all Iran has is a batch of nuclear fuel, or at worst, material for a dirty bomb.

Israel and Netanyahu have been crying about an imminent nuke from Iran for twenty years, yet it has never materialized.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

8. So you did read the whole article and yet you only posted the paragraph that supposedly supported your version.

Nice job.

So, according to you, an Iranian dirty bomb launched at Israel is really no big thing?

Gee, whom to believe, Israeli intelligence, which is much more in tune with what Iran is doing and capable of than Trump's US intelligence?
Guess with side I believe more?

[indusurb]

10. Lol, Israel has been stating that Iran was about to drop a nuke for twenty years

Doesn't sound like a well run intelligence operation to me, or at least a very biased one.

[House of Roberts]

13. Why don't you post the text of the article that supports YOUR opinion?

That would be of some help to the rest of us.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

18. Why don't you click on the link to the article and read it yourself?

Here, I'll post the link for you.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-bomb-us-intelligence-years-away

[House of Roberts]

35. So your opinion isn't worth sharing?

I'll make a note: MCE just likes to criticize other people's opinions but won't put his own opinion up for scrutiny.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

38. Fine, if that's what you want to do,

have at it, I really don't care.

[sarisataka]

12. The very next paragraph-

Another senior US official told CNN that Iran is “about as close as you can get before building (a nuclear weapon). If Iran wanted one, they have all the things they need.”

and later-

US Central Command, responsible for American military operations in the Middle East, has conveyed a greater sense of urgency than the civilian intelligence community when it comes to Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

In the lead-up to Israel’s latest attack, Central Command had endorsed a more dire timeline, believing Iran could obtain a usable nuclear weapon more quickly if it were to sprint towards that goal, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

[indusurb]

14. And in the article as well. . .

"Trump’s Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, testified in March that the US intelligence community, “continues to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized a nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”

And from the IAEA. . .

"The International Atomic Energy Agency, a top international watchdog, said last week that Iran had amassed enough uranium enriched at levels just below weapons-grade to potentially make nine nuclear bombs, which it termed “a matter of serious concern.”

The challenge, for Iran, is producing not merely a crude nuclear weapon – which experts say Iran could potentially do within the space of months if it decided to – but also producing a working delivery system, which could take much longer."

So, no weapons grade uranium, no delivery system, all years away.

Israel has been banging the "imminent threat" drum for twenty years now, and it has yet to pan out.

[sarisataka]

16. So now we believe Tulsi Gabbard... how times change

With the proper equipment, which Iran has, the uranium can be enriched in a very short time. North Korea has shown how an apparently nascent nuclear program can develop working weapons. NK was under stricter controls than Iran

When they are talking about delivery system, they mean a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. There are other ways to deliver even a crude nuclear weapon or nine

I firmly believe however, if a nuclear device hidden in a truck detonated in Tel Aviv people would say it was Israel's fault for not acting sooner.

[indusurb]

24. Included Gabbard's assessment just for the Trump administration POV

These are those folks that want an excuse to bomb Iran, yet through Gabbard they were admitting they don't have one.
Meanwhile real intelligence is saying, per first paragraph of article, that Iran is three years away. It takes awhile, months, years, using gas centrifuge, even advanced ones that Iran has.

And yes, Iran is going to need a missle or plane delivery system. The notion that they would drive it there is laughable. The sheer weight of the combined bomb and shielding to contain the radiation would be prohibitive, not to mention they would have to cross multiple land borders, many equipped with radiation detection systems to prevent just such a scenario.

And again, Israel has been blowing that imminent threat horn for twenty years now, that Iran was just weeks or months away from a bomb. Why should we believe them now, especially when the intelligence says otherwise?

[sarisataka]

28. Allow me to educate you-

A thermonuclear weapon weighing as little as 600 pounds (270 kg) can release energy equal to more than 1.2 megatons of TNT (5.0 PJ)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon

That includes the weight of the shielding.

How many land border crossings have radiation detection systems? I have been to the Middle East and can't say I ever noticed one.

All that "real intelligence" you refer to is coming from the same place and overseen by Gabbard. Gabbard who now says she and Trump are "on the same page" that Iran on the verge of getting a nuclear weapon.
So do we believe her when it suits us or do we believe her now?

Do you believe Israel should wait for Iran to build a nuclear weapon before striking or wait until Iran uses one? Or maybe not even then?

[indusurb]

31. Wiki, hah, bane of intelligence everywhere

Good for some things, but real facts, eh, not so much.

Anyway, a B83 1.2 megaton bomb weighs in a 2,400 pounds, yes, it does have enough shielding included in that not to kill the pilot and crew, but such bombs still leak a lot of radiation. You would probably have to add 1-2 times that weight in either lead or depleted uranium shielding for it to not set off radiation monitors. And yes, there are radiation monitors at the borders of most countries. The US has them, and I guarantee Israel has them. You won't see them, you're not meant to, but they're there.

Oh, and that intelligence I'm stating is coming from the IAEA. I included the Gabbard testimony to show where the Trump administration is at.

Again, Israel and Netanyahu has been crying wolf about the immi ent Iranian bomb for twenty years now, yet nothing has ever been proven. Should we bomb Iran just because he says so?

[sarisataka]

39. 1-2 times that weight

so a device weighing three tons- now by your admission shielded to a level to prevent detection. It would not even require a large vehicle to transport. A semi can carry upwards of 40 tons- that's 35+ tons of material to hide a bomb that is not giving off radiation.

From the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the people who maintain the doomsday clock:

How quickly could Iran build its first nuclear weapon? Look at China

How quickly could Iran make an atomic bomb once it has acquired enough weapons-grade uranium? Some nuclear experts argue it would take Iran anywhere between several months to up to a year. But China’s experience shows that Tehran could build a bomb much faster—in as little as three to five weeks.[1]

***

Portions of Iran’s “nuclear archive,” which Israel seized in January 2018, clearly show Iran’s weaponization projects running in parallel with HEU projects under the “Amad Plan,” Iran’s code name for a crash nuclear weapons program that operated from 1999 to 2003. The Amad Plan aimed to produce five 10-kiloton nuclear weapons by early 2004, including four deliverable warheads for the Shahab-3 ballistic missile, and another one for testing underground.

***

China’s insights. Given the similarities between Iran’s bomb and China’s 596/548 atomic bomb designs, the technical bottlenecks and timelines of China’s bomb development can shed light on Iran’s possible bomb development timelines.

The major hurdles China faced when making its first atomic bomb included the weapon design, neutron sources, the detonation wave focusing system, “cold” (or subcritical) tests, and uranium metal components production. All these are non-nuclear weapon components tasks that can be completed before HEU production, the most time-consuming step in the Chinese atomic bomb program. Once China produced HEU, it took abou three to five weeks from having sufficient UF6 gas to an assembled uranium bomb.

thttps://thebulletin.org/2025/01/how-quickly-could-iran-build-its-first-nuclear-weapon-look-at-china/

Three to five weeks is fairly imminent, unless one believes Israel should wait until Tel Aviv is leveled.

[indusurb]

40. OK, so you've reached the Israeli border with your 7,200 pound payload, in a semi or large, obvious box truck

Border agent:

"OK sir, open up the back, we need to check you out"

Driver:

Ummm. . .

Or they just put the truck through their handy dandy Xray(and yes, they have them, just like we do). Oops.

The notion of smuggling such a bomb through land borders, especially Israel's is ludicrous.

[sarisataka]

41. Similar check stop 100%

of drugs crossing the US border.
I am aware of x-ray technology. I also spent the better part of a year working with an intelligence Red Team- our job was to come up with the most devious nightmare scenarios and figure out how to pass through high security. There are ways to do it, far from ludicrous, and the driver will have no idea what he is carrying as part of his load (at least that is how I would do it)

But let's consider other scenarios, bring a weapon in by ship, in a shipping container, a cargo plane would be doable although admittedly very difficult.

The biggest problem is getting the bomb. Delivery is a matter of smuggling if it cannot be delivered in conventional ways

[MarineCombatEngineer]

43. And what makes you believe that a suicide bomber wouldn't just detonate it at the border of Israel?

As small as Israel is, it would devastate not only Israel, but the entire region and probably the world.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

32. With this one, I believe that.

Do you believe Israel should wait for Iran to build a nuclear weapon before striking or wait until Iran uses one? Or maybe not even then?

[MarineCombatEngineer]

20. From Tulsi Gaggard?

I may have been born on a turnip truck, but I wasn't born yesterday on a turnip truck.
Nice try, but a huge fail.

[LexVegas]

21. I thought we hated Tulsi Gabbard? Didn't she love Syria? Heh. nt

[MarineCombatEngineer]

23. Oh but some loves themselves some Tulsi as long as it casts Israel in a negative light,

it shows with this one.

[indusurb]

25. What shows?

What exactly are you implying with that statement?

[MarineCombatEngineer]

26. Don't play coy with me,

you know exactly what I'm talking about.

[indusurb]

27. Unlike others, I don't assume.

I prefer to speak directly and for others to do the same. So why don't you state plainly what you're trying to say rather than beating around the bush about it. Or is that too much to ask of you?

[MarineCombatEngineer]

29. No, you just post misleading threads and include only what supports your thread,

but when one reads through the whole article, the truth, not your "truth", comes out and it becomes quite transparent where your sympathies lie, which, in this country, you are afforded that right, unlike in Iran.

[indusurb]

33. So again, stop beating around the bush

What are you implying with that statement " it shows with this one"?

[MarineCombatEngineer]

34. So, again, stop playing coy,

you know exactly what was meant.
You're being pretty transparent by trying to have a gotcha moment, well, it won't work with me but you just keep on keeping on.

[indusurb]

37. No, actually I don't know what you meant

There are several possibilities, and I'm not going to assume anything, you know, basic human courtesy.

So why don't you plainly state what you mean and we can continue from there, or is basic human courtesy too much to ask for?

[MarineCombatEngineer]

19. Paragraphs that the OP purposely left out

because it didn't fit the narrative of the thread.

[Blue Full Moon]

15. It was years. But makes a good excuse.

We won't talk about the CIA involvement in the political assassinations of presidents that were elected through democracy, that threw Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan into civil wars and the rise of extremists.

[Ping Tung]

17. Is this another war that Trump said he would stop in 24 hours and all parties would kiss an make up and play nice?

There is no flag large enough to cover the shame of killing innocent people.

Howard Zinn

[SocialDemocrat61]

22. FYI, Netanyahu is not a reliable source

for any subject.

[Rob H.]

30. Iran has been a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since 1970.

Along with Pakistan, India, and North Korea, Israel isn't, so of course they've had to maintain the multi-year fiction that Iran's "close to" being able to build nuclear weapons to deflect from their own hypocrisy.

[Traildogbob]

36. Our "leaders"

Bush, Powell, Cheney and that third GQP shit stain that is now in hell, Rumsfeld, all assured us Iraq was ready to launch nukes, that put us in a bankrupting hell for a dozen+ years, while every one of them packed their bank accounts, and took away our freedoms and privacy and gave this damn regime legal authority to end us at their will. And that war killed millions of people, and scarred and mutilated as many.
So Iran will welcome Natty Ya Hoo as liberators, and turn into a democratic nation. With a little Shock and Awe!
We have seen this movie of a mad man and his regime drunk on power and cash.
I see lots of Trump garb at the VA, but have never seen Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld garb on any vet.
Maybe those suckers and losers will end the love fest with Trump and his money hoarders after a war in Iran for a decade. Then walk away, after the war monger’s get paid. But now the end to VA benefits will be complete after DOGE and President Miller finish their goals.
But I may be dead wrong, and Natty Yahoo is only concerned for his people. Worthy of that Nobel Prize trump plans on getting.

[Mountainguy]

42. "US Intelligence" Tulsi Gabbard

Sorry if I don't put much faith in it.