Plaid Cymru win Caerphilly by-election in humiliation for Labour

[Emrys]

Plaid Cymru have won the by-election in the Senedd seat of Caerphilly for the first time - a landmark victory for the Welsh nationalist party.

Lindsay Whittle, 72, who has stood as Plaid's candidate in the constituency in Welsh and parliamentary elections 13 times since 1983, has finally won a seat in the Senedd and will hold it at least until next year's wider assembly elections.

It's a humiliating defeat for Labour, who had held Caerphilly at every election since it was created in 1999 - as well as the parliamentary seat for over a century.

It is also a blow to Nigel Farage and Reform UK, whose victory would have strengthened claims they are poised to inflict massive damage on Labour and the Conservatives in elections next year and beyond.

The by-election was triggered by the sudden death of Labour MS Hefin David, who had held the seat since 2016.

https://news.sky.com/story/plaid-cymru-win-caerphilly-by-election-in-humiliation-for-labour-13455893

Given the fact that prior polling gave no hope of Labour holding on to the Welsh Assembly seat, the BBC and most of the other mainstream channels seem intent on boosting Reform at every opportunity, and Nigel Farage was reported to have been strutting around everywhere in the constituency earlier in the day with shipped-in cronies and the media in tow and has now vanished, I'd have headlined this piece:

Plaid Cymru win Caerphilly by-election in major disappointment for Reform.

Here are the results in percentages (change compared to 2021 election):

Plaid Cymru: 47.4% (+19.0)
Reform UK: 36.0% (+34.2)
Welsh Labour: 11.0% (-34.9)
Welsh Conservatives: 2.0% (-15.3)
Green Party: 1.5% (New)
Welsh Liberal Democrats: 1.5% (-1.2)
Gwlad: 0.3% (New)
UKIP: 0.2% (New)

Turnout 50.43%

And here they are in actual votes:

Plaid Cymru – 15,961
Reform UK – 12,113
Welsh Labour – 3,713
Welsh Conservatives - 690
Green Party - 516
Welsh Liberal Democrats - 497
Gwlad - 117
UKIP - 79

Polling had predicted Plaid and Reform to be more or less neck and neck. Whether that reinforced and guided tactical voting is anybody's guess, but doesn't seem out of the question. Labour's ex-voters who didn't fancy Reform had a choice between sitting on their hands or voting for Plaid to keep Reform out. The stark decline in the Tories' vote probably accounts for some of Reform's increase.

If the Greens' momentum in England keeps up, then similar results in close-polling seats with a different spread of parties may put a dent in Reform's hopes in future elections.

Stories like this breaking a few weeks ago may also have had some bearing:

Ex-Reform politician admits Russia-linked bribery charges

Reform UK's former leader in Wales has admitted taking bribes to make statements in favour of Russia while being a Member of the European Parliament.

Nathan Gill, 52, from Llangefni, Anglesey, pleaded guilty to eight counts of bribery between 6 December 2018 and 18 July 2019.

The politician took money from Oleg Voloshyn - a man once described by the US government as a "pawn" of Russian secret services - and made speeches in the parliament, statements to a TV channel and arranged an event with a pro-Russian politician.

Gill will be sentenced in November and his defence barrister said he expected to be jailed.

The Old Bailey was told he was tasked by Ukrainian Oleg Voloshyn on at least eight occasions to make specific statements in return for money and there was evidence of WhatsApp messages between the two men.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6xwy015ngo

In the aftermath, Farage - who was noted for having made supportive speeches about Russia on the few occasions he could be bothered to attend the European Parliament - expressed "shock" at the revelations and dismissed Gill as "a bad apple".

Well, you know what they say about the bad apple metaphor ... "a warning of the corrupting influence of one corrupt or sinful person on a group" (Wikipedia).

In cider veritas?

[TommyT139]

1. Cymru am byth! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

[comradebillyboy]

2. Labour party is even more incompetent than the Tories.

[T_i_B]

3. As much as Labour are a frustrating bunch of wet wipes...

...a large part of the emergence of Reform is down to the sheer incompetence of the Tories. Both in government and in opposition under Kemi Badenoch. Tory voters have deserted them en masse for Reform. That's the major factor behind the Reform surge.

It's incredibly frustrating as Reform are the worst of the lot.